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#102 Florida Atlantic +4
2-Units (7:00 P.M. CST) (ESPN2)
Most are saying that this Tuesday night match up between Troy and Florida Atlantic may very well decide who will be the Sun Belt Conference Champion. Although Florida Atlantic is the reigning Champion, they have played nothing like the team we saw last year. The Owls are 1-4, and lost their conference opener on a last second hail mary at Middle Tennessee St. last week. You would think that a team returning 18 starters from a Conference Champion team would be set to repeat, but the Owls have failed to meet season beginning expectations. Quarterback Rusty Smith has thrown only 4 touchdowns on the season, compared to 7 interceptions. The good news is that the Owls have played only one home game this season, and in that game against UAB, Smith threw for 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in a game that saw the Owls offense explode for 49 points. Troy comes in at 2-2 on the year. They beat Middle Tennessee St. 31-17 to start the season, then blew out Alcorn St. by a 65-0 margin. Losses were expected at Ohio St. and Oklahoma St., but now the Trojans find themselves 3 1/2 point road favorites to a Florida Atlantic team that has its backs against the wall. Although Jamie Hampton has more touchdown passes than Smith, lets not forget that almost half of those touchdown tosses came against Alcorn St. We have one common denominator in this match up, and that is that both have played Middle Tennessee St. on the road. Troy beat the Blue Raiders by a convincing 31-17 score, while Florida Atlantic lost 14-13 to this same Blue Raider team. Looking a little closer at the stats I noticed that against Troy the Blue Raiders actually had more first downs(20-16) and an advantage in time of possession(36-24), while Troy had a small total yardage advantage of 300-284. The Blue Raiders actually had a +2 turnover advantage, but lost the game as a result of going 0-4 on 4th down conversions. Despite losing last week at Middle Tennessee St., Florida Atlantic had an advantage in every category except one, and that was a -3 turnover ratio that ultimately cost them the game(barely). Look for Florida Atlantic to give its best effort of the season on Tuesday night. Their season depends on it. Worth noting for this game is that the line opened with Troy being a 3 1/2 point road favorite and has pretty much held steady until just a few minutes before this write-up. With 80-85 % of the public being on Troy, this tells me that a small amount of Sharp Money is coming in on Florida Atlantic.
Take Florida Atlantic +4 for 2-Units.
Slade
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